NFL Home Underdogs Providing Late Season Value

As NFL seasons wind down, the betting public has seen the majority of the year and “knows” which teams are good and which are ready to pack it in. As a result, after Week 14, you see larger point spreads and very lopsided games, in terms of NFL Spread Betting Trends.
In 2003, Richard Borghesi published a paper called, “Price Predictability: Insights from the NFL Point Spread Market.” In this paper, Borghesi analyzed Week 15 through the playoffs from 1981-2000 and found that, after Week 14, there is increased value in betting large, home underdogs.

Our research analysts went through our archived NFL data, which begins in 2003, to find if these trends continued and how contrarian bettors should approach the final weeks of the NFL season.

To begin, we first analyzed our entire database of NFL home underdogs from 2003-2011 (not including the 2011-2012 season).
As you can see, the win percentage for home underdogs against the spread (ATS) increased with the point spread and betting dogs of eight points or more has been extremely profitable. Situs Judi Bola Resmi

Next, we analyzed how home underdogs have performed in recent years. The table below includes data from 2008-2011 (not including the 2011-2012 season).
Since 2008, we’ve seen the same correlation as ATS win percentage increased with the amount of points a home underdog receives.


Our analysis backs up Borghesi’s initial findings, indicating there is value with large NFL home underdogs from Week 15 through the playoffs.

Despite being a favorite of the public, Kentucky has struggled against the spread (ATS). Bettors simply fading the Wildcats have won at a rate of 59.4% ATS.

When adding betting percentage and point spread filters, that winning percentage becomes even greater.

Our analysis of Betting Against the Public in College Basketball shows that contrarian betting has historically been profitable when playing on double-digit underdogs that are receiving 40% or fewer of spread bets.

Bettors applying these criteria to Kentucky’s 27 games this season increased their win rate to 64%.

We also found that Kentucky has been greater than a 19-point favorite, while receiving more than 60% of spread bets, nine times. They failed to cover the spread in seven of those games.

The table below summarizes the win rates when betting against Kentucky at three betting percentage and point spread levels.
* All betting percentages in this article represent Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends.
** Point spreads used to determine ATS records reflect closing lines from Pinnacle.

We understand that drawing conclusions based on results from one of 344 Division I college basketball teams is not uniquely significant, but this data correlates with our research and results from all games since the beginning of the 2008 college basketball season.

With March Madness quickly approaching, square money is preparing to flood the market, presenting opportunities for contrarian investors and those willing to bet against heavily-favored teams like Kentucky.

At the time of publication, Kentucky is receiving 60% of spread bets as a 19-point favorite for Thursday’s game against Georgia, so be sure to keep an eye on the betting trends and spread for this game for a possible contrarian betting opportunity.

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